The closer we approach the second and tragic anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, on February 24, the more we wonder: do the Europeans have the necessary capabilities to support it sufficiently and sustainably in this war of position? Immediately the other question arises: Do we have the means to ensure, if necessary, our own defense? Across Europe, including the United Kingdom, with the exception of Hungary, our leaders are haunted by the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House. What would then be worth the protection that our continent benefits from under the shelter of the Atlantic Alliance and Article 5 of its treaty, which guarantees in the event of an enemy attack the united intervention of the member countries, starting with the most powerful? of them, whose conventional and nuclear means remain stationed in Europe?
Biden administration fails to extend massive aid to Ukraine
France is part of the system, even if its deterrent force, unlike the British, remains independent. From next Friday, like every year at this time, Munich will be the echo chamber of this concert of questions and concerns: the conference on security will bring together in the Bavarian capital civil and military leaders, journalists and spies, and much more. a number of experts, starting with those who have made us friends this morning, to share their analyses. The Biden administration, blocked by Trump zealots in Congress, is unable to renew massive aid to Ukraine: are the Europeans able to take over? Shells, drones, combat fighters: what are their industrial capacities, why so many difficulties in carrying out joint programs? Despite the reluctance of certain member states, the European Commission wants new tools: too little, too late? In Stockholm last week, Emmanuel Macron once again recalled the European dimension of France’s vital interests. Could this be a veiled way of offering French nuclear protection to partners?
In December, Pierre Haroche coordinated a call for around twenty experts from 12 countries, published in particular in Le Monde, December 13, 2023, In Ukraine, Europe is experiencing its Demosthenes moment. Bruno Tertrais notably wrote The War of the Worlds, the return of geopolitics and the clash of empires (editions of the Observatory, 2023) and “Pax atomica? Theory, practice and limits of deterrence”, (Ed.Odile Jacob, January 2024)